Steel Scrap Metal Market Report: November 2025

US steel scrap prices in November 2025 held remarkably steady across all major grades, with market consensus pointing to flat month-over-month pricing. Heavy melting steel (HMS) 80/20 leveled out at approximately $355.50 per metric ton CFR Turkey, a key global benchmark that represented a modest 1.57% increase over the preceding month but reflected stabilization rather than momentum. Domestic prices for HMS No. 1 and No. 2 traded in a tight range between $0.12-0.18 per pound, while shredded steel maintained its traditional premium at $0.14-0.20 per pound.

The Fastmarkets Outlook Trend Indicator edged up to 52.3 in November from October's depressed levels, indicating slight bullishness with the forecast model pointing to a minimal 0.7% price rise month-on-month. However, this marginal uptick reflected technical recovery from October's losses rather than fundamental strength. Consensus around the November forecast reached 68%, well above the long-term average of 61%, suggesting broad market agreement about the lack of pricing momentum in either direction.

Regional price variations remained compressed, with the North Midwest prompt industrial composite grade (consisting of factory-generated busheling and bundles) holding near the $500 per ton threshold established in September. This stability across grades and regions reflected balanced supply-demand fundamentals, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish momentum ahead of the traditional holiday slowdown period.

The dichotomy between buyer and seller sentiment was notable, with sellers maintaining optimism at a 58.3 reading on the outlook indicator while buyers remained below neutral at 48.7. This divergence suggested sellers anticipated spring recovery while buyers focused on near-term softness, creating the conditions for stable pricing in the absence of compelling directional signals. Electric arc furnace capacity utilization held in the mid-to-upper 70% range, providing adequate but not excessive demand for scrap feedstock.

Automotive sector demand provided the most reliable support for steel scrap markets in November, with North American vehicle production running 6% higher than the previous year. This sustained output reflected improving supply chain conditions and healthy consumer interest despite affordability challenges. However, automotive demand growth proved insufficient to drive prices higher, as production increases had been largely anticipated and priced into existing market levels.

The steel-intensive automotive sector continues consuming approximately 14% of domestic steel shipments, with flat steel products accounting for roughly 40% of automotive applications. The ongoing transition to electric vehicles maintained demand for specialized high-strength steel grades used in battery enclosures and structural components, though this benefit was offset by slower purchasing from traditional internal combustion vehicle manufacturers managing inventory levels ahead of year-end.

Construction sector activity remained the largest steel-consuming segment at over 50% of total demand, but November typically brings seasonal headwinds as weather conditions deteriorate in northern regions and contractors complete projects before winter. The Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act of 2021 continued providing baseline demand support, with expectations of approximately 50 million tons of steel products consumption over the program's lifetime. However, this long-term demand driver offered little near-term price support given the gradual deployment timeline.

Manufacturing sector demand held steady, supported by reshoring initiatives and federal policies encouraging domestic production. Machinery and equipment manufacturers maintained consistent steel purchases, though at modest levels reflecting typical November patterns. Energy infrastructure projects, including renewable installations and grid modernization, provided incremental demand without creating meaningful upward price pressure. Overall, demand fundamentals proved adequate to prevent price declines but insufficient to drive significant increases.

Domestic scrap supply conditions entered their traditionally slower period in November, as seasonal patterns typically reduce generation volumes through the December-February window. Industry participants anticipated scrap flows would remain subdued until spring weather improvement enables increased demolition and industrial activity. This seasonal supply tightening historically supports prices during winter months, with the past three years showing increases of $80-100 per gross ton during the December-February period.

However, November 2025's supply conditions proved adequate to meet muted demand without creating shortages. Scrap processors reported healthy inventory levels accumulated during fall collection periods, reducing immediate purchasing urgency from mills. Transportation logistics remained functional despite approaching weather challenges, with rail and truck capacity available for processors needing to move material. The absence of supply disruptions removed a potential catalyst for price increases.

Electric arc furnace operations maintained steady scrap consumption, with mills scheduling production to balance inventory management against anticipated seasonal supply tightening. Many EAF operators built working inventory in November ahead of December's typically slower purchasing period, creating baseline demand that prevented price deterioration. The flexibility of EAF steelmaking allowed operators to optimize production timing around electricity pricing and scrap availability without creating competitive tensions.

Import competition for scrap remained minimal, as global pricing levels offered little incentive for significant US material to move to export markets. The 50% tariff on finished steel products continued creating domestic price supports that enabled processors to sell locally rather than seeking export outlets. This dynamic reduced the typical pressure from international buyers while maintaining adequate domestic market clearing prices.

Federal Reserve monetary policy continued its gradual easing path in November, with the central bank maintaining its trajectory toward the anticipated 2% inflation target by Q4 2025. The neutral Fed Funds rate had reached 3.00-3.25% by October 2025, representing significant progress from the elevated rates that had constrained construction and automotive demand throughout much of the previous year. Market participants anticipated this lower interest rate environment would stimulate economic activity and steel-intensive sectors, though the benefits would materialize gradually rather than immediately.

The construction sector's sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations positioned it to benefit most directly from monetary easing, as project financing costs declined and made marginal developments economically viable. However, November typically brings minimal new construction starts regardless of financing conditions, as builders avoid commitments that would face winter weather delays. The policy support proved more relevant for 2026 planning than immediate November demand.

The 50% tariff regime on steel imports remained firmly in place throughout November, continuing to provide artificial price supports for domestic steel production. This policy structure had fundamentally altered trade flows since its implementation, reducing import competition while maintaining scrap material exemptions that allowed processors access to international markets. The stability of this policy environment removed uncertainty as a market factor, allowing participants to plan operations without fear of sudden regulatory changes.

Automotive sector financing conditions showed modest improvement as interest rates declined, though auto loan rates of 8-9% remained elevated by historical standards. Industry analysts anticipated buyer sentiment would improve only marginally given the slow pace of rate decreases and persistently high new vehicle prices. Consumer demand was expected to tick up slightly in 2025 but remain muted compared to pre-pandemic levels, limiting the automotive sector's ability to drive steel demand growth.

Global steel market conditions remained challenged by Chinese overcapacity, with expectations of 50 million tonnes surplus production in 2025. However, November brought little direct impact from international developments, as the US tariff structure effectively insulated domestic markets from immediate price pressure. The long-term sustainability of elevated domestic pricing relative to global levels remained a strategic concern rather than a near-term trading factor.

The near-term outlook through December 2025 and early 2026 reflects expected seasonal patterns combined with underlying market fundamentals. Industry participants broadly anticipate scrap prices will increase during the December-February period, following the historical precedent of $80-100 per gross ton seasonal gains. This outlook assumes supply flows will tighten meaningfully as weather conditions deteriorate while mills maintain steady purchasing to manage inventory levels through the traditionally slower collection season.

The spring recovery thesis gained credibility among market participants in November, with sellers particularly optimistic about demand acceleration as construction activity resumes in earnest. The Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act continues providing a supportive policy backdrop, while reshoring initiatives should generate incremental steel-intensive manufacturing capacity additions. Federal Reserve policy easing should manifest more clearly in 2026 activity levels, particularly for construction projects financed at lower interest rates negotiated in late 2025.

Automotive sector fundamentals suggest continued production growth, with forecasts pointing to marginally higher output in 2026 as financing conditions improve and consumer purchasing power strengthens. The ongoing transition to electric vehicles maintains specialized steel demand, particularly for advanced high-strength grades used in battery enclosures and structural applications. This secular trend provides baseline support independent of cyclical economic factors, though the magnitude of impact on overall scrap demand remains modest given EVs' current market share.

Export market developments bear monitoring, particularly as global scrap prices showed mixed directional trends in late 2025. Turkey and certain Mediterranean markets demonstrated modest recovery while European pricing faced downward pressure. The spread between US domestic prices and export alternatives remained sufficient to keep most material flowing to domestic mills, though narrowing differentials could create future pressure if international demand strengthens while domestic consumption softens.

Risk factors include potential modifications to the tariff regime under new political leadership, though major changes appear unlikely given bipartisan support for domestic steel industry protection. Global overcapacity remains a structural challenge that could reassert pressure if trade policies shift. Weather patterns more severe than typical could disrupt both supply generation and demand from construction applications, creating temporary volatility around seasonal expectations.

For US steel scrap processors and recycling operations, the strategic approach entering 2026 should balance near-term seasonal expectations with longer-term positioning around high-value applications. The December-February period likely offers opportunities to realize seasonal price gains if supply tightening materializes as anticipated. Spring recovery appears probable given policy supports and improving financing conditions, suggesting processors should maintain operational capacity to capture increased volumes when activity accelerates.

Investment in advanced sorting and processing technologies remains critical for accessing premium market segments, particularly automotive and infrastructure grades commanding higher prices. The regulatory environment continues favoring established operators able to demonstrate environmental compliance, creating barriers to entry that protect market share. Operational flexibility to adapt to policy changes and market shifts will prove essential, as the unusual stability of November 2025 may not persist if fundamental drivers strengthen or weaken meaningfully.

The industry's long-term trajectory remains tied to circular economy trends and sustainability imperatives that support steel recycling's fundamental value proposition. November's quiet trading conditions provided breathing room for operators to prepare for anticipated 2026 activity increases, with success dependent on maintaining cost discipline while preserving the capacity to scale operations when demand materializes. The remarkable consensus around flat November pricing proved well-founded, validating the market's ability to achieve equilibrium even in the absence of strong directional catalysts.